Monitoring the rise in Russian attacks after the missile strikes in Kiev

On May 16, 2023, a firefighter works at a parking lot that was harmed by what appears to be Russian missile debris...

Over the past few weeks, drones and missiles have repeatedly struck Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. The majority of attacks happen at night.

Nataliya Lyashchenko has lost count of how many times the sound of air sirens, drones, and missiles in central Kyiv has kept her from falling asleep. She remarked that a particular nighttime raid's bright lights in the night sky looked "like Star Wars.".

Such strikes are occurring more frequently. Experts believe Russia is adjusting its strategies in an effort to weaken Ukraine's air defenses, but they also believe that, in part, it may be turning on the civilian population of Ukraine in response to military setbacks.

A picture of the rise in these aerial attacks on Kyiv and the rest of the country since the beginning of this year has been developed by BBC Verify through analysis of local media reports, eyewitness accounts, and statements from local officials and the Ukrainian military.

A column chart showing the number of days in which Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine have been reported in the Ukrainian media. The data shows a gradual increase from a low of three separate attacks in January to eight total attacks in Mach and April, before a sharp rise to 21 attacks in May

There were only three days in January when Russia carried out aerial attacks on Ukrainian targets.

21 days were added to that total in May. The first two days of June also saw attacks.

Along with stepping up the attacks, Russia seems to have altered its main goals.

The attacks are intended to wear down Ukrainian air defenses, according to Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation.

According to her, "Right now, there are more attacks against major population centers, forcing Ukraine to spend interceptors defending their cities.".

Surface-to-air missiles called interceptors are used to shoot down drones and missiles that are attacking.

Russian missile or drone being shot down over Kyiv's zoo
Over the Kiev Zoo, one missile or drone was shot down.

However, according to Ms. Massicot, there could be another factor contributing to the rise in attack frequency.

The recent strikes, according to Massicot, are probably a response to attacks inside Russia that Moscow has blamed on Ukraine. Throughout this war, Russia has used missiles to demonstrate to its population that it is acting.

"I think we're seeing a combination of both: realizing they need to wear down Ukrainian air defenses, and lash out over some of their setbacks," the expert claims.

Russian attacks have become more concentrated on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.

17 out of the 21 reported Russian attacks on Ukraine in May have had Kyiv as a target, compared to two out of seven attacks in April.

Two maps of Ukraine showing the number of days in which there have been reports of Russian missile and drone attacks on key Ukrainian cities over the course of April and May. Red circles of varying sizes are used in the city locations to represent the number of attacks. The maps show that attacks on Kyiv have increased sharply from a total of two in April to 17 in May. Dnipro and Odesa have seen smaller increases from three to four and two to five attacks respectively.

The inhabitants of the city have suffered psychologically as a result. About five or six kilometers from the city's center, Polina Karabach resides in the suburbs.

She was awakened by loud noises outside on April 28 at 4:00.

According to her interview with the BBC, "I was feeling very anxious as the news channel I usually tune into wasn't operating so I wasn't able to get many details.".

What she was unaware of at the time was the fact that Russian cruise missiles were soaring through the air before being shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.

According to local officials, all missiles or drones aimed at Kyiv have been shot down, and any damage is the result of falling debris.

Independent verification of this is lacking.

Kyiv appears to be more of a "strategic" than a "military" target, according to Greg Bagwell, president of the UK Air and Space Power Association and a former RAF commander.

Kyiv, he claims, serves as the seat of power. It more strongly supports the hypothesis that Russia is attempting to forge a totemic sense of victory. Instead of having a direct military impact, it is more symbolic. ".

Whatever the reason, there aren't many places in Kiev where the drone and missile strikes haven't left their mark.

People take shelter in a Kyiv metro station during an air raid alert on 5 May 2023
During air raid warnings, people seek refuge in the metro stations of Kiev.

On May 4, Nataliya Lyashchenko spoke to the BBC about a raid she had experienced.

Air sirens began to sound in the middle of the night, and then the battle began almost 15 to 20 minutes later, according to her.

Leaving only her passport and cat behind, she sought refuge in a metro station close to her home.

It's not an amusement. We've lost our jobs, our homes, and our health in this war, she claims. Large challenges lie in our future.

It will take 10 to 20 years, possibly even longer, to mentally recover after our victory. But because Ukrainians have shown strong will to survive, I think we will survive.

. "

Source link

You've successfully subscribed to Webosor
Great! Next, complete checkout to get full access to all premium content.
Welcome back! You've successfully signed in.
Unable to sign you in. Please try again.
Success! Your account is fully activated, you now have access to all content.
Error! Stripe checkout failed.
Success! Your billing info is updated.
Billing info update failed.