Did Ukraine finally launch its long-awaited counteroffensive this past week?
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, appears to agree. He declared in a video interview that was posted on Telegram on Friday that "we can categorically state that this Ukrainian offensive has begun.".
It has in some ways already been going on for a few weeks, with Ukraine conducting what are referred to as "shaping operations" in the military: long-range artillery and missile attacks on significant Russian logistical targets far behind the front lines.
Small Ukrainian units with light armor moved towards Russian fortifications in southern Ukraine, southeast of Zaporizhzhia, on Monday, appearing to signal a change in the situation.
According to Serhii Kuzan, co-founder and chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, "the so-called 'fighting reconnaissance stage' is now taking place along the entire length of the front.".
"That implies that Russian defenses are being probed. ".
According to some videos and accounts, they encountered problems right away.
Mr. Kuzan said, "This happens somewhere more successfully with smaller losses. "And in a less successful location where the Russians respond. ".
They are all in the region south of Zaporizhzhia, Mr. Kuzan only mentioned, declining to name any specific towns.
By Tuesday, the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam and the subsequent flooding that quickly covered roughly 230 square miles (596 square kilometers) on either side of the Dnipro River had the attention of the entire world.
Despite all of the Kremlin's denials, it didn't seem random. The road that crosses the dam provided a potential line of attack for Ukrainian forces looking for a way to throw the Russian forces off guard.
It is very likely that the Russian forces in control of the dam decided to detonate it, eliminating one of Kyiv's potential military options.
Several times before, Kiev had expressed interest in this section of the front line.
At Oleshky, Ukrainian soldiers briefly established a bridgehead at the end of April by crossing the river. In the Dnipro delta, close to Kherson, Ukraine also took control of a number of tiny islands.
It is unknown and now academic to what extent Kiev has military plans for this region. River crossings will be impossible for the time being due to the catastrophic flooding.
But the Russians were aware that such a course was an option, according to Mr. Kuzan.
While the flooding in Kyiv suddenly caught authorities off guard, fighting continued - and appeared to get worse - further east.
Early on Thursday morning, the UK Ministry of Defense tweeted that "heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front," adding that "Ukraine holds the initiative" in the majority of those areas. ".
The same day, Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, claimed in a video that Russian forces had thwarted a 1,500-person, 150 armored vehicle, and overnight Ukrainian attack in the region south of Zaporizhzhia.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine "made an attempt to penetrate Russian lines," the Russian Defense Ministry claimed. ".
The destruction of a Leopard tank supplied by the West was purportedly shown in a video that was widely shared online. The video hasn't been verified by the BBC yet.
Ukrainian officials, who are accustomed to keeping quiet about ongoing operations, provided tantalizing hints as to what was happening.
The Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Malyar, coyly stated that Russian forces were "actively on the defensive" in the vicinity of the town of Orikhiv, about 65 kilometers south-east of Zaporizhzhia.
She also confirmed in a Telegram message that fighting was still going on around Velyka Novosilka, further east.
The two towns probably make up the western and eastern flanks of a heavily fortified front line where many analysts predict Ukraine will eventually attempt to break through Russian defenses.
One of our primary objectives, according to Mr. Kuzan, is to cut off the land corridor that supplies the entire southern coalition of enemy forces.
Excited conversation about Ukraine's most recent actions was common on pro-Russian Telegram channels in the Donbas.
In the I Love Kramatorsk group, a user wrote, "They are going where the Russians are waiting for them.". What folly, I say.
Others acknowledged that Ukrainian forces had advanced but questioned the cost in terms of soldiers and armor that had been lost.
Another member of the same group remarked, "I really question the price of this success.
"Do they have sufficient forces to even reach Tokmak, which is located 44 kilometers south of Orikhiv?".
Fighting is also happening in other places.
Video from the north and south of Bakhmut, the site of one of the bloodiest and longest battles of the war, seemed to show Ukrainian forces advancing.
According to Ms. Malyar, they have advanced "from 200 to 1,100 meters in various sections," possibly in an effort to encircle the city and entrap its Russian occupiers.
The UK Ministry of Defence described it as "a highly complex operational picture.".
Does this indicate, however, that Ukraine's counteroffensive has already begun a dramatic new phase?
The idea was mocked on Wednesday by Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council.
He told Reuters, "All of this is not true.
"Everyone will be aware when we launch the counteroffensive. They'll observe it. ".
But undoubtedly, something has altered.
Serhii Kuzan stated that the front was finally moving, adding that Ukrainian commanders still had a number of options available to them.
The main one being the absence of fighter jets that can provide air support, Ukraine is however also operating under a number of significant constraints.
"That's why we move slowly, and then move air defense [systems] closer," Mr. Kuzan said. ".
Time is yet another aspect. The duration of this offensive will probably be no longer than five months, after which time autumn rains will once more make open terrain impassable for heavy armored vehicles.
How will success manifest itself?
If Ukrainian forces are able to break through Russian defenses all the way to the Sea of Azov, any Russian forces west of that breach will suddenly be much more exposed and totally reliant on supply routes through the Crimean Peninsula.
After that, according to Mr. Kuzan, all that would be left to do is attack the ships and planes that are used to transport supplies to the peninsula and destroy the Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia with Crimea and was momentarily closed last October by a massive truck bomb.
He claims, "That would be the end.". But don't anticipate this to happen anytime soon. Months will pass.
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